Thursday, April 13, 2006

Predicting the Elections

In the last fiji elections I created a pool at work for picking who was going to win in each of the constituencies. I ended up only getting six constituencies wrong which was akoy, mere and speed were the ones I could remember. In the indian seats I just said labour was going to win them all.

So I will be doing that at my new company with the difference being is now it wont be all fijians taking part so its going to be interesting. There is no way I will only get six wrong in this election as I dont have access to information from taxi drivers and my old workmates which were on the ground in all the different areas.

Going forward the biggest factor in the elections are
  • Effect of Indian SDL candidates on Open Seats
  • NFP Preferences
  • If PANU can win some seats and the effect of their preferences in open seats
  • If Alliance party can get more then 15% of the Fijian Vote.

Anyway before the elections I will post my picks


Blogger Peceli and Wendy's Blog said...

Looks like too many candidates, too many parties, so it all depends upon coalitions and alliances and trading. I read the long list and it is strange that in some places, there are 3 candidates from the one party. That's strange? Oh, for the good old days when there was only Alliance and Federation Parties! So simple then, but of course those neo-colonial days, most people were quiet, submissive and not as ambitious perhaps.
There's an interesting posting in Fijiexiles today from Jack about the army.

3:52 PM  
Anonymous peceli and wendy's blog said...

The elections ought to be interesting George. I think that Qarase ought to be given another term. There are too many small parties as usual.

12:00 AM  
Blogger Peceli and Wendy's Blog said...

Well, why are we waiting George? Where is your list of predictions? There are a few people I like. Nanise in Labasa, and Subramani in Macuata West. Don't know most of the others. There's a lot of wannabees there and they are mucking up the election. Will ano of the independents get in?

3:55 AM  
Anonymous george said...

This election is much harder then the last election. I am waiting on the race stats for each of the constituencies as it seems majority of fijians are going to vote SDL, Hindus Labour, Indian Business people NFP and Muslims SDL, moderates Alliance.

At this point in time I would be supprised if Alliance gets 15% of the Fijian Vote where SDL may lose communnal for Rewa and some Nadi seats to Panu

4:29 AM  

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