Saturday, May 06, 2006

Predictions for 2006 Fiji Elections

Broke down the election for Fiji and it was very hard to predict. From my analysis all important marginal seats has SDL the last preference. So indian vote will go to Labour if labour has a bigger primary vote then NFP othewise NFP will win those open seats

My results were
SDL - 37
Labour Coalition - 26
NFP - 4 - (Attar Sing, Bala, Ex Suva mayor or prem sing, one of the north opens)
Alliance - 1 Rotuman
Independant - 3 (Rewa Communal, zink, taukin)

The above is based on the following factors
Labour still wins majority of Indian Vote and SDL has less then 10% of indian vote
Ratu Epeli will have a smaller primary vote the SDL, Labour and NFP
SDL wins west communal Seats (Good possibility that PANU wins at least one fijian communal)
The races stats I worked off are correct for registered voters
Get Out to vote is consistent amongst all races
Majortiy of Labasa indians will vote for labour

Hardest Seats to call
Suva City Open
Northern General
Nadi Open

Interesting tidbits

Tupeni Baba will have to win on primary vote to win Tamavua/Samabula open where there is only 50% Fijians and he is last in nearly all preference lists.
Dont see many Vehicles with SDL logos
SDL supporters think Jale Babe will beat chaudry even though he is the second SDL preference in Ba Open. I think the SDL logistics and group think is out of whack

If National Alliance/Labour get more the 10% of Fijian Vote then my predictions will be way off.

I am guessing NFP is going to be the key to decide who the next prime minister is as it will be tough for SDL to get 36 by themselves.

Thursday, April 13, 2006

Predicting the Elections

In the last fiji elections I created a pool at work for picking who was going to win in each of the constituencies. I ended up only getting six constituencies wrong which was akoy, mere and speed were the ones I could remember. In the indian seats I just said labour was going to win them all.

So I will be doing that at my new company with the difference being is now it wont be all fijians taking part so its going to be interesting. There is no way I will only get six wrong in this election as I dont have access to information from taxi drivers and my old workmates which were on the ground in all the different areas.

Going forward the biggest factor in the elections are
  • Effect of Indian SDL candidates on Open Seats
  • NFP Preferences
  • If PANU can win some seats and the effect of their preferences in open seats
  • If Alliance party can get more then 15% of the Fijian Vote.

Anyway before the elections I will post my picks

Easter Holidays

Home with the Family, will be going to Nadi on the weekend to pick up Bale's relatives. Try and stay at West Motor Inn, if not then either Nawaka or Sala's Flat. Will be working on Saturday morning and Monday so it will be a short trip

Wendy went back to Labasa for the Easter Holidays. The wharf was full and she wasnt able to get on the Sullivan so she is travelling on the Sophie. So they must be enforcing the OHS rules as the Sullivan is huge ship. On my list trip it effected my inner ear for around 3 weeks.

Today will be catching up on blogging

Friday, March 10, 2006

UB40 in Fiji

Watched UB40 last night with Jordan, Andrew and Wendy. Andrew took Eparama's ticket as Epa wasnt allowed to go because the family because of the christian storm against UB40.

Besides being the best concert I saw in Fiji it was one of the Best I have seen ever. Orgranisation was poor though as it took around half an hour to get in and we had to wait around one and half hours to start.

In today Fiji times it said there were around 7000 people which I would find hard to believe. The seats and floor where three quarters full in the FMF dome.

Interesting that the expensive seats in the UB40 were the cheap seats in Laughing Samoan concert. Andrew was to young for the concert but it was so cool to be at it with Jordan.

Tuesday, February 28, 2006

Break From Blogging

Have been very busy in the last few days as have been in the middle of a go live. Should start bloggin again shortly after a week

Saturday, February 18, 2006

Bale is back from New Zealand

Bale has come back from New Zealand so we are all whole again. So many things were left undone when bale was away.

I have a niece staying with me who will be registering for catering next week at FIT. I will try and get my FNPF to pay the fees and see if I find some connections at FAB for a scholarship

I have been to both my kids class meetings. It reminds me important having the right teacher is in the progress of a child and his future interaction with school.

Jordan is going to trial for Mini Rugby, he has to compete with more then 90 boys while eparama has to compete with over 250 boys to make the Suva Grammar team. Not sure of their chance because they are both slow.

For me its expected that they will end up playing major athletics as the kids uncle were regulars in Fiji Rugby and Fiji Athletics. So the expectation is the kids will end up playing for Fiji. But first step is to get picked from the trials which will be hard especially as jordan has trouble catching the rugby ball.

Today was the first time the kids became competitive on their results from school. We were very competitive growing up but never for marks at school. Their is problem though by being extremely competitive is that they wont compete in things that they know you wont win. So I keep on saying the notion that the most important thing is to try their best.

Thursday, February 09, 2006

Mixed Marriages

Adi Kalavu wrote on a Fiji forum her opinions on Mixed marriages.

Some people in the Fijian community in Australia raised some concerns about when a Fijian woman is married to a European or a Fijian man is married to a European are there problems? Some of the issues raised were:

1. The marriage may be one of convenience, an opportunity to go to overseas, a passport to stay on for an illegal person, a visa to work. This is hardly a good basis for a stable relationship.

2. People have different expectations about a woman's place in the home, or the workplace, who is the boss of the house, who controls the money, what time to eat meals etc. From small details such as the number of visitors into the house, smoking in the lounge-room, kava parties, there can develop friction and arguments.

3. Going to church
If the Fijian partner puts a priority upon their church the other person feels abandoned and says, 'Why do you value your ethnic group more than me and the kids? You want to spend ten hours with them on a Sunday, the only day we have for family outings? 'A Fijian church service might be for two hours. Partners may go to be sociable and to enjoy the singing and dinner but often there is little in the way of English explanation on what is preached about and this is boring for the non-Fijian speaker.

4. . If the Fijian partner puts a priority upon their church the other person feels abandoned and says, 'Why do you value your ethnic group more than me and the kids? You want to spend ten hours with them on a Sunday, the only day we have for family outings? 'A Fijian church service might be for two hours. Partners may go to be sociable and to enjoy the singing and dinner but often there is little in the way of English explanation on what is preached about and this is boring for the non-Fijian speaker. Language

5. can be a barrier to understanding. If an Islander has a limited vocab in English he or she might misunderstand what is being said. Also the non-Fijian speaker might get annoyed that they don't understand the stories, the jokes and they feel excluded because no one bothers to translate. They can go for hours on the edge of a kava circle and not know what is being said. Kava.

6. Some women reckon it is a waste of time, it is costly, it makes the men lazy and tired and even gives them a dry skin. It is a bother to drive 20 k to a shop just to buy kava. Another thing is the continual rearrangement of the furniture to accommodate a kava party, chairs stacked up on the verandah or in bedrooms and everyone has to sit on the floor. A ban on smoking in your house might cause an argument because the Fijian partner wants to be seen as hospitable to guests. Alcohol and violence

7. Alcohol and violence
May cause the breakdown of a marriage. The use of money

8.Who controls the purse if only one person is working? It is difficult if one partner is a big spender, wants a lavish car, or plays the pokies. The demands of the vanua/culture

9. The demands of the vanua/culture
When there is a call for assistance for a particular need such as a bereavement, marriage, or choir tour, this can be a financial burden. The non-Fijian partner resents the fact that the income has already been allocated to pay the mortgage etc.

Okay, where there is love in the full sense of the word, many of the problems can be solved by a give and take, a talking over the situation, airing grievances and coming to some sort of compromise, and respect for each person's difference at times.

Saturday, January 28, 2006

Pacific workers plan

We need to have a dream in life as the saying if I dream alone its only a dream if we dream to gather then it become a reality. But does it?

Many Pacific Islanders really want the opportunity for short-term work in the Australian fruit industry. The plan has been discussed over recent years, even twenty years. Leaders from the Pacific islands Nations meets in the Pacific Forums which Australia and NZ are members and the subject is raised again and again. The dream of seasonal work in the fruit industries in Australia (such as Robinvale, Mildura, Shepparton, Griffith) is also the dream of the farmers who can't get enough workers! The farmers know that Fijians and Tongans and other Islanders work very well and are reliable.

The PM John Howard says no the plan, so does the Minister for Foreign Affairs, Alexander Downer. Yet groups are allowed to be guest workers from Asia and also youth from Europe.

The excuse given by Howard is that Islanders should develop their own countries first and perhaps there is as fear that too many will come and not return to the islanders where they are needed.

The story is still on the agenda though.

From ABC News

January 27, 2006. 12:00pm (AEDT)

Opposition backs Pacific workers plan

The Federal Opposition says it agrees that Australia will have to open its doors to unskilled migrants from Pacific countries, but only on a short term basis.

A report commissioned by the Federal Government has found that smaller Pacific island nations urgently need their people to move abroad in search of work to save them from economic ruin.

Opposition spokesman on Pacific Island affairs, Bob Sercombe, says the Federal Government has been putting its head in the sand over the issue.

"The question really here is that you can I think address the development needs of Pacific countries by allowing short term entry of Pacific Island workers to come and earn income in Australia, maybe learn additional skills as part of the training package associated with their work and then they return home," he said.

eXTReMe Tracker Fiji blog network