Predictions for 2006 Fiji Elections
Broke down the election for Fiji and it was very hard to predict. From my analysis all important marginal seats has SDL the last preference. So indian vote will go to Labour if labour has a bigger primary vote then NFP othewise NFP will win those open seats
My results were
SDL - 37
Labour Coalition - 26
NFP - 4 - (Attar Sing, Bala, Ex Suva mayor or prem sing, one of the north opens)
Alliance - 1 Rotuman
Independant - 3 (Rewa Communal, zink, taukin)
The above is based on the following factors
Labour still wins majority of Indian Vote and SDL has less then 10% of indian vote
Ratu Epeli will have a smaller primary vote the SDL, Labour and NFP
SDL wins west communal Seats (Good possibility that PANU wins at least one fijian communal)
The races stats I worked off are correct for registered voters
Get Out to vote is consistent amongst all races
Majortiy of Labasa indians will vote for labour
Hardest Seats to call
Suva City Open
Northern General
Nadi Open
Interesting tidbits
Tupeni Baba will have to win on primary vote to win Tamavua/Samabula open where there is only 50% Fijians and he is last in nearly all preference lists.
Dont see many Vehicles with SDL logos
SDL supporters think Jale Babe will beat chaudry even though he is the second SDL preference in Ba Open. I think the SDL logistics and group think is out of whack
If National Alliance/Labour get more the 10% of Fijian Vote then my predictions will be way off.
I am guessing NFP is going to be the key to decide who the next prime minister is as it will be tough for SDL to get 36 by themselves.
My results were
SDL - 37
Labour Coalition - 26
NFP - 4 - (Attar Sing, Bala, Ex Suva mayor or prem sing, one of the north opens)
Alliance - 1 Rotuman
Independant - 3 (Rewa Communal, zink, taukin)
The above is based on the following factors
Labour still wins majority of Indian Vote and SDL has less then 10% of indian vote
Ratu Epeli will have a smaller primary vote the SDL, Labour and NFP
SDL wins west communal Seats (Good possibility that PANU wins at least one fijian communal)
The races stats I worked off are correct for registered voters
Get Out to vote is consistent amongst all races
Majortiy of Labasa indians will vote for labour
Hardest Seats to call
Suva City Open
Northern General
Nadi Open
Interesting tidbits
Tupeni Baba will have to win on primary vote to win Tamavua/Samabula open where there is only 50% Fijians and he is last in nearly all preference lists.
Dont see many Vehicles with SDL logos
SDL supporters think Jale Babe will beat chaudry even though he is the second SDL preference in Ba Open. I think the SDL logistics and group think is out of whack
If National Alliance/Labour get more the 10% of Fijian Vote then my predictions will be way off.
I am guessing NFP is going to be the key to decide who the next prime minister is as it will be tough for SDL to get 36 by themselves.
posted by George at 11:50 PM
1 Comments:
Okay they are about to count and my results are now
SDL - 37
Labour Coalition - 26
NFP - 4 - (Attar Sing, Ex Suva mayor or prem sing, one of the north opens, ba communal)
Alliance - 1 Rotuman
Independant - 3 (Rewa Communal, zink, irwin)
Amazing that a significantly higher percentage of fijian registered voters votes compared to indians. This ends up meaning that Fijans have nearly a third extra number of votes comparing fijian to the indian vote
It is a very hard election to call but I am getting the majority of fijians voting for SDL and Labour losing more indian votes then the last election
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