Saturday, May 06, 2006

Predictions for 2006 Fiji Elections

Broke down the election for Fiji and it was very hard to predict. From my analysis all important marginal seats has SDL the last preference. So indian vote will go to Labour if labour has a bigger primary vote then NFP othewise NFP will win those open seats

My results were
SDL - 37
Labour Coalition - 26
NFP - 4 - (Attar Sing, Bala, Ex Suva mayor or prem sing, one of the north opens)
Alliance - 1 Rotuman
Independant - 3 (Rewa Communal, zink, taukin)

The above is based on the following factors
Labour still wins majority of Indian Vote and SDL has less then 10% of indian vote
Ratu Epeli will have a smaller primary vote the SDL, Labour and NFP
SDL wins west communal Seats (Good possibility that PANU wins at least one fijian communal)
The races stats I worked off are correct for registered voters
Get Out to vote is consistent amongst all races
Majortiy of Labasa indians will vote for labour

Hardest Seats to call
Suva City Open
Northern General
Nadi Open

Interesting tidbits

Tupeni Baba will have to win on primary vote to win Tamavua/Samabula open where there is only 50% Fijians and he is last in nearly all preference lists.
Dont see many Vehicles with SDL logos
SDL supporters think Jale Babe will beat chaudry even though he is the second SDL preference in Ba Open. I think the SDL logistics and group think is out of whack

If National Alliance/Labour get more the 10% of Fijian Vote then my predictions will be way off.

I am guessing NFP is going to be the key to decide who the next prime minister is as it will be tough for SDL to get 36 by themselves.

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